IB History P2, Is it enough to focus on only one topic?

from IB History P2

• I feel like it would be better to focus on just one of them..?

  • Maybe it’s best to assume that we’ll be writing about 20th Century Wars.

• The situation where both 20th Century Wars are not good (if this doesn’t happen, it’s possible to prepare only for 20th Century Wars)

  • Unexpected issues arise (such as technology in civil war)
    • Is that possible?
    • I would like to discuss this with teachers from other schools.
  • Last year’s questions are repeated
    • In this case, it would be easier to prepare for the previous year’s questions rather than focusing on Cold War preparation.
  • Two wars in the same region, for example
    • This is concerning, I wonder if it’s possible.

• How should we express the probability mathematically?

  • Situation
    • There are 2 topics, and there is a possibility of an essay with 10 questions for each topic.
    • 2 questions are asked for each topic (a total of 4 questions), and only 1 question is selected from the 4.
  • Probability of being in trouble if only 8 out of 20 questions are prepared
    • ? If 8 questions are prepared for Topic A and 0 questions for Topic B
      • 2/10 * 1/9 = 0.0222
    • ? If 4 questions are prepared for Topic A and 4 questions for Topic B
      • 6/10 * 5/9 * 6/10 * 5/9 = 0.111
      • Intuition is correct.
  • Probability of being in trouble if only 12 out of 20 questions are prepared
    • However, each topic can only be prepared for a maximum of 8 questions
      • (This represents the possibility of missing questions) (blu3mo)
    • ? If 8 questions are prepared for Topic A and 4 questions for Topic B
      • 2/10 * 1/9 * 6/10 * 5/9 = 0.0074
      • From this, we can see that just preparing 4 questions for Topic B reduces the risk to 1/3 (blu3mo)
    • ? If 7 questions are prepared for Topic A and 5 questions for Topic B
      • 3/10 * 2/9 * 5/10 * 4/9 = 0.014
      • Just changing the distribution results in almost double the probability.
  • Note: The setting of 20 questions is arbitrary, and the situation is quite simplified, so the probabilities are not very reliable.
    • The focus is on how the probabilities change when the distribution is altered.
  • I might draw a graph if I feel like it.

• (Although the general solution is not obtained, it’s rough) Conclusion

  • It’s better to focus the effort on one topic.